NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Housing
starts and building permits plunged
in December much more than expected,
resulting in a full-year decline in
new home construction that was the
sharpest drop in 27 years.
And there is little sign things will
get better soon. According to
government data released Thursday,
the full-year total for building
permits posted the biggest drop in
33 years. The sharp dropoff in
building is one of the reasons that
many leading economists are growing
increasingly fearful that an
economic recession is near, if it
hasn't already struck.
The pace of housing starts in
December dropped 14 percent to a
seasonally-adjusted annual rate of
1.01 million in December, according
to the Census Bureau report.
That figure is down from the 1.17
million November reading, which was
also revised lower. Economists
surveyed by Briefing.com had
forecast the annual pace of starts
would fall to 1.15 million in the
latest reading.
The level of starts in the month was
the weakest since May 1991, when the
country was just coming out of the
1990-91 recession.
"These figures confirm that the
housing recession continues to
deepen," said Mike Larson, a real
estate analyst for Weiss Research.
"Slumping consumer confidence and
tighter lending standards have
already taken their toll on demand,
and the broader economic slowdown
we're starting to see unfold now
threatens to make a bad situation
worse."
For the year, housing starts fell 25
percent to 1.35 million. That
decline represents the biggest drop
since the recession year of 1980 and
the third largest drop since the
Census Bureau started tracking this
activity in 1959.
Building permits, which are often
taken as a measure of builders'
confidence in the market, fell 8
percent to an annual rate of 1.07
million from 1.16 million in
November. Economists had forecast
permits would fall to 1.14 million
in the latest reading.
Permits were at the lowest level
since March 1993 in the month. For
the year permits plunged 25 percent,
which was the biggest drop in that
measure since the 1974 recession
year. It was also the second largest
decline on record.
Builders are slamming the brakes on
production, because the glut of
completed new homes on the market is
eating into housing prices and
company earnings. A separate Census
Bureau reading reported a record
193,000 completed new homes on the
market for sale at the end of
November, and that builders were
typically facing a 6.2 month wait to
sell homes after they are completed.
"The only potentially good news [in
the report] is the continued decline
will help to alleviate bulging
inventories," said Adam York, an
economic analyst with Wachovia.
The report also comes the day after
a survey by the National Association
of Home Builders found that
confidence in the sector only
slightly above record lows, with
three out of four builders saying
the level of buyer traffic was
either low or very low, more than
two-thirds saying the current market
conditions were poor, and just over
half expecting the market to still
be poor in six months.
That weakness
has also hammered at the results of
the nation's largest builders. A
week ago KB Home (KBH,
Fortune 500),
the nation's No. 5 builder by
revenue, reported a fiscal fourth
quarter
loss
that was nearly 10 times worse than
forecasts, as CEO Jeff Mezger told
investors during a conference call
that "As we enter 2008, we see no
indication markets are stabilizing."
Lennar (LEN,
Fortune 500),
the nation's No. 1 home builder, is
forecast to report a large increase
in fiscal fourth quarter losses when
it releases results Jan. 24. Those
losses are forecast to continue
throughout this fiscal year as well.
Analysts are looking for No. 6
builder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV,
Fortune 500)
to post losses in both fiscal 2008
and 2009.
Analysts are
also forecasting that No. 2 Centex (CTX,
Fortune 500),
No. 3 D.R. Horton (DHI,
Fortune 500)
and No. 4 Pulte Homes (PHM,
Fortune 500)
are going to report continuing
losses until at least their final
quarters of this calendar year.
The builder
with the forecast of the quickest
return to profits is luxury home
builder Toll Brothers (TOL,
Fortune 500),
seen as posting a narrow gain in the
quarter ending in July. It posted
its first loss as a public company
in its most recent period, which
ended in October.